Besides going over the course syllabus during the first day of class on Tuesday, January 14, we will also discuss a particularly important “real world” example of financial risk. Specifically, we will look at the relationship between stock market returns (as indicated by daily percentage changes in the SP500 stock market index) and stock market volatility (as indicated by daily percentage changes in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)):
As indicated by this graph from page 21 of the lecture note for the first day of class, daily percentage changes on closing prices for VIX (which is the x-axis variable) and the SP500 (which is the y-axis variable) are strongly negatively correlated. The blue points represent 7,557 daily observations on these two variables, spanning the time period from January 3, 1990 through December 27, 2019. When we fit a regression line through this scatter diagram, we obtain the following equation:
where corresponds to the daily return on the SP500 index and corresponds to the daily return on the VIX index. The slope of this line (-0.1126) indicates that on average, daily VIX returns during this time period were inversely related to the contemporaneous daily return on the SP500; i.e., when volatility as measured by VIX went down (up), then the stock market return as indicated by SP500 typically went up (down). Nearly half of the variation in the stock market return during this time period (specifically, 48.91%) can be statistically “explained” by changes in volatility, and the correlation between and comes out to -0.7. While a correlation of -0.7 does not imply that and always move in opposite directions, it does suggest that this will be the case more often than not. Indeed, closing daily returns on and during this period moved inversely 78.44% of the time.
You can see how the relationship between the SP500 and VIX evolves prospectively by entering http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/^GSPC,^VIX into your web browser’s address field.